Spring Market Dynamics Somewhat Cooler Than Spring 2018; Median Home Prices Stable; Luxury Home Sales Hit New Monthly Highs.

Long-Term Median Home Price Trends

Short-Term Median Home Price Trends

Year-over-Year Comparison of Market Statistics

This table and the charts further below of selected market indicators illustrate some cooling as compared to the very hot market of spring 2018, but generally speaking, many of the recent statistics would still be considered to indicate a high-demand/ low inventory market. For example, the days-on-market and months-supply-of-inventory figures are quite low by long-term standards. And luxury home sales actually increased this spring – as they also did in San Francisco and San Mateo Counties.

Luxury Home Sales, $2,000,000+

April and May 2019 saw slightly higher sales volumes of homes selling for $2m+ than the previous peak in May 2018. However, as seen in the table above, the number of homes selling for $3m+ this spring declined year-over-year. Not too much should be made of short-term statistics.

Median Home Price Changes by City

Comparing annual median home prices to partial year prices is not really an apples-to-apples comparison because of the effect of market seasonality – and especially ebbs and flows in luxury home sales – on sales prices, but the below analysis is interesting. Some cities are slightly down, some slightly up, some basically unchanged – and a few of the more expensive communities have seen unusually large year-to-date jumps. These abnormal spikes in prices should not be taken as definitive indicators of changes in fair market values until substantiated over a longer term.

Full-year 2019 median home prices may be significantly different than the year-to-date figures.

Median House Sales Prices by City
& Bedroom Count

Click here to go to our updated map of Bay Area median house prices.

Selected Market Indicators

These next two charts give more historical context to trends and are excellent illustrations of the effect of seasonality on the market. Typically, the market will begin to slow down for summer in June.

Selected Economic & Demographic Snapshots

This chart below illustrates unemployment rates through January 2019, but rates have dropped even further through April. They are very, very low around the Bay Area – in some cases, the lowest rates ever.

It is probably safe to assume that the affordability percentage for our market area is similar to that of affluent, high-home-price counties like Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – which in Q1 2019 ran 17% to 21% (of households able to purchase a median priced house). Affordability percentages actually ticked up in Q1 due to interest rates declines and, in some markets such as Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties, drops in median home sales prices. But the Bay Area still has some of the lowest affordability rates in the state and country.

Bay Area Household Size & Median Age